Indian talk turns to lower gold import duties again

Julian Phillips’ latest take on matters affecting the gold and silver markets

In India where the economy, according to the I.M.F. is a ‘bright spot’ in the global economy, talk is starting again of lower duties on gold imports. Apparently the delay and the absence in the recent budget of a lowering of duties, was due to the hope that the Indian gold buyers would turn to the various government/banking schemes to channel gold buying into them to lower imports of gold. We feel this is a polite gesture to these schemes, but their record over the last few years has been very poor, as they have been largely ignored by Indian gold investors for reasons we discussed in our newsletters of late.  The government is fully aware of the failure of these attempts, so the time they wait for duty lowering could be only a few months.  The advantage of lowering such duties would be to restrain the exchange rate from rising further and reducing any danger of a surplus on the Trade account.

We warn our subscribers that they will need to turn to a new website to get the new ‘gold fix’ on Friday. Please know that it will also only be set in the U.S. $ not in the euro and sterling as we see now. We will give details of the new process in our next issue.

Markets and SPDR Gold ETFs

New York closed at $1,154.90 down $0.30 with Asia holding it there as did London ahead of the Fixing.  The euro stood in New York at $1.06. At the Fix gold was set at $1,154.75 down $2.25 and in the euro, at €1,087.540 down €10.131, while the euro was at $1.0618 up three quarters of a cent.  Ahead of New York’s opening, gold was trading in London at $1,155.00 and in the euro at €1,088.95.

The silver price closed at $15.57 again, unchanged from Friday. Ahead of New York’s opening it was trading at $15.57.

There were no sales or purchases of gold from or to the SPDR gold ETF and none from or to the Gold Trust on Monday. The holdings of the SPDR gold ETF are at 750.670 tonnes and at 164.02 tonnes in the Gold Trust.

Gold and silver prices are seeing an increasingly tightening trading range alongside the action in currencies. Prices are in the hands of dealers who are moving them as they see the euro move. Today with the euro recovering slightly, the gold price fell when, if it had followed the pattern of the euro, it should have recovered. If more strength is seen in the euro dealers are likely to lift gold and silver prices. But do not confuse these adjustments with the strong move we are expecting in the near term.

Julian D.W. Phillips for the Gold & Silver Forecasters – www.goldforecaster.com and www.silverforecaster.com  

 

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