Julian Phillips’ latest analysis of the gold and silver markets and the geopolitical factors affecting them.
With payments due to the IMF from Greece this week and further steady erosion of the capital base of the country happening through to April, Greece is under extraordinary pressure to buckle and do as they are told by the E.U., despite the election results. The ongoing crisis is helping the E.C.B. objective of pushing the euro down. We expect this to continue. However on Friday we saw the gold price fall slow down and turn up, despite the sinking euro. Asian demand is coming in at this level. If this demand continues, we will see the formation of a bottom in preparation for a strong move either way. Greece’ plans to follow through on the agreement with the E.U. appear now to be vague and without substance. We ask, “Is this due to a lack of intent or due to the inability of the government to act effectively?” It is difficult to get away from the conclusion that either way, that a default is a near certainty and that Greece, willingly or unwillingly, will exit the E.U. This issue will continue to stumble on for some time to come still to the benefit of the E.U. and a weaker euro.
Another issue that must be nearing rupture point is not just the rise of the dollar against other currencies but the rise of the Yuan with it. We saw the surprise move of Switzerland when it did not want to continue to see the Swiss Franc fall with the euro. Similar pressures are building in China as the Yuan appreciates alongside the dollar. We expect some action from the People’s Bank of China soon on this issue.
But the biggest event affecting the gold price starts on Friday when the London Gold Fix changes and, we asume, the big Chinese gold banks join the fray.
Markets and SPDR gold ETF
New York closed on Friday at $1,155.20 up $1.90 with Asia taking it up to $1,162 at the start of the week. The euro was holding closing levels in New York at $1.05. London took gold back to $1,158 ahead of the Fix where it was set at $1,157.00 up $0.50 and in the euro, at €1,097.671 up €6.427, while the euro was at $1.0540 down almost half a cent. Ahead of New York’s opening, gold was trading in London at $1,157.00 and in the euro at €1,098.71.
The silver price closed at $15.57 unchanged on Friday. Ahead of New York’s opening it was trading at $15.65.
There were sales of 0.247 tonnes of gold from the SPDR gold ETF but none from the Gold Trust on Friday. The holdings of the SPDR gold ETF are at 750.670 tonnes and at 164.02 tonnes in the Gold Trust.